The Implication of Demographic Transitiom on Indonesia 2020 Population Census

Jousairi Hasbullah
There has been three stages of demographic transition.
The first, from both high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality. The end of the first demographic transition is marked by replacement level of fertility when TFR is about 2.1. If the level can be maintained for about 40 years, the population will stable with zero growth. The most recent situation, some countries even have reached  below replacement level. While in Indonesia the replacement level will be reached in 2020, but in some provinces even have complated replacement level: Jakarta, Yogyakarta, East Java and Bali.

The second demographic transition as stated by Van de Kaa, fertility reached below replacement level and the population will be characterized by older age of marriage, single woman,  many more couples with no children, the stronger emerging of ageing population. Society tend tobe more individual, self actualization and the stronger tendency of self actualization.

The third demographic transition as argued by Coleman 2006, TFR stabilized below replacement level and at the same time there will be followed by the accelaration of more complex population mobility both in the form of directions, typologies,  and the volume. All these trends mentioned will have an implication on ethnic composition. At the same time there will be stronger ethnic and primordial group based politics which could create social uncertainties, social tension and social distrust.
Implication on 2020 Indonesia Census
The complexity of the society: more individual, the need for self actualization, nucleous family, distrust toward other group and toward government make the field process of census will not simple. The need to give a strong focus on understanding changing behavior of the societies and create the most suitable field strategy to overcome the emerging problems.
Jousairi Hasbullah
JSHcenter. Bandung July 2018.